Newcastle United vs Arsenal: Model backs the Gunners in a tight St James’ Park test

Footixify probabilities — Home 21%, Draw 32%, Away 47%; Over 2.5: 46%

The model view

Arsenal get the edge from the Footixify model, with a near one-in-two chance of leaving St James’ Park with all three points. The draw remains a serious runner at 32%, and the goals model tilts slightly to a low-scoring script (Under 2.5 at 54%). Put together, we’re looking at a game decided by fine margins, where control and set-piece detail could matter more than shot volume.

Recent form and head-to-head context

Newcastle have hardened up without fully solving the finishing puzzle. Their last three Premier League outings include two 0-0s and a 1-0 win, a run driven by improved structure and shot suppression. Arsenal, meanwhile, have balanced high-control home wins with cagey big-six chess matches. They’ve tightened up since an Anfield loss and have taken care of business domestically and in Europe.

A note of history: Arsenal’s recent trips to St James’ Park have been awkward. The Gunners have lost their last three league visits here without scoring, and the hosts are chasing a fourth straight home league win over Arsenal for the first time in decades. That trend underlines the draw gravity in our numbers.

Recent form snapshot

Team news and selection notes 🚑

• Newcastle: Wide man Jacob Murphy is managing an Achilles issue but is available if needed. Fabian Schär is sidelined with a head problem, while Jacob Ramsey has an ankle concern. Sven Botman’s midweek precaution shouldn’t prevent involvement. In attack, Nick Woltemade has led the line recently, with Anthony Gordon and pace on the flanks offering the transition threat.
• Arsenal: Martin Ødegaard has stepped up training and is tracking to be available. Bukayo Saka has returned from a hamstring issue. Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus remain out, while Piero Hincapié’s groin problem is being monitored. Noni Madueke faces a longer spell on the sidelines. Up front, Viktor Gyökeres continues as the reference point, with Leandro Trossard and Gabriel Martinelli the primary wide/inside threats.

These notes point to defensive reshuffles for Newcastle and a near-first-choice control room for Arsenal, with Ødegaard’s availability particularly important for ball progression and set plays.

Tactical outlook 🔑

• Newcastle’s blueprint has tilted toward a sturdy mid-block, leveraging the fullback delivery of Kieran Trippier and the aerial presence at both ends. Expect Bruno Guimarães to anchor and spring quick counters to Gordon. With goals at a premium, set pieces and long switches to isolate Arsenal’s fullbacks will be central.
• Arsenal will aim to own territory through Declan Rice and Martín Zubimendi, with Ødegaard the connector into Gyökeres’ runs across the line. Out of possession, the Saliba–Calafiori axis has been calm and proactive, helping keep recent games low-event. The Gunners’ wingers will need to track Trippier while still offering punch in transition.

Given the model’s lean to the under and both sides’ clean-sheet trends, the opening half may be chess-like: compressed midfield spaces, few clear-cut chances, and a premium on first contact at dead balls.

How the numbers meet the match-up 📈

• Newcastle have three clean sheets in their last three league games but have struggled for volume and chance quality against compact blocks.
• Arsenal’s balance has improved since the Liverpool defeat, with three shut-outs in five and a habit of managing scorelines once ahead.
• The head-to-head at this venue has favored Newcastle recently, which, along with the Magpies’ defensive uptick, explains the model’s sizeable draw share.

Value angles (responsible, data-led) 🎯

Primary markets first:

• 1X2: Away win lean. At 47%, Arsenal are the model’s preferred side, but the 32% draw tempers conviction. If you’re risk-averse, anchoring any position around Arsenal while respecting the stalemate makes sense.
• Over/Under 2.5: Lean Under. The model’s 54% for the under is supported by both clubs’ recent defensive runs and Newcastle’s modest attacking output. A controlled 0-1/0-2 type of script is the kind of game state the numbers envisage.

Secondary notes:

• Both Teams To Score: Slight lean to “No,” consistent with the under and Newcastle’s clean-sheet streak in the league.

Stake sizing should reflect the razor-thin margins and the historical stickiness of this fixture.

Model outlook: Arsenal win as the primary angle; Under 2.5 the clearest totals lean. Draw gravity is high at St James’ Park, so keep expectations modest and respect the possibility of a low-event stalemate.