Liverpool vs Everton: Late‑show Reds meet Everton’s new steel

Footixify probabilities — Home 38%, Draw 33%, Away 29%; Over 2.5: 53%

Derby day with edges on both benches

The 247th Merseyside derby arrives with Liverpool perfect in the league and thriving on late drama, while Everton look far more robust and purposeful than in recent seasons. Anfield has been a fortress in this fixture for decades, but the visitors’ recent defensive improvement and away record give this meeting a sharper competitive edge than the table alone suggests.

Liverpool’s weeks have been defined by late punches: another stoppage‑time winner in midweek underlined how Arne Slot’s side keep their foot down into the 90s. The champions have stitched together narrow, controlled league wins (Arsenal 1-0, Burnley 1-0) alongside higher‑variance thrillers (Newcastle 3-2, a 3-2 European tussle), a blend that speaks to game‑state maturity and bench impact.

Everton, meanwhile, have banked seven league points from the last three and added another clean sheet in a disciplined 0-0 with Aston Villa. The Toffees have leaned into structure and transition, with better pressing connections and more clarity around the front four’s roles.

Recent form snapshot 📈

• Liverpool (last five, all comps): W W W W W — Bournemouth 4-2, at Newcastle 3-2, Arsenal 1-0, at Burnley 1-0, Atlético 3-2.
• Everton (last five, all comps): W L W W D — at Newcastle 1-0, at Leeds 0-1, Brighton 2-0, at Wolves 3-2, Aston Villa 0-0.

Team news and selection notes 🚑

• Liverpool expect a near‑clean bill of health. Curtis Jones is back in the frame after a brief absence. Up front, there’s a genuine call at No 9: Alexander Isak’s quick integration (a 58‑minute European start) versus the different profile of Hugo Ekitike, who has also seen meaningful minutes. Mohamed Salah should continue on the right, where his derby record needs no introduction, with Florian Wirtz and Cody Gakpo offering fluidity between the lines. At the back, Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté anchor the box, with Andrew Robertson competing to keep his place at left‑back.
• Everton have a couple of defensive question marks. Jarrad Branthwaite (hamstring) and Vitaliy Mykolenko are pushing to return but remain doubtful; if the latter doesn’t make it, James Garner has been deputising on the left. Expect a spine of Jordan Pickford behind James Tarkowski, Michael Keane and Jake O’Brien. Higher up, Jack Grealish and Iliman Ndiaye are set to flank Kiernan Dewsbury‑Hall, with a decision to make at centre‑forward between Beto and Thierno Barry.

Head‑to‑head context 🧱

• Liverpool have lost just once in the last 28 home meetings with Everton in all competitions, and they’ve won the last four at Anfield since a 2-0 defeat in February 2021.
• In Premier League play, Everton have only two wins across the last 29 derbies, failing to score in five of the last seven.
• The visiting manager’s Anfield record is notoriously barren in the league, adding a psychological layer to the occasion.

Those trends matter, but they don’t erase the visitors’ uptick: Everton have won six of their last 11 league away games, a marked improvement that has them travelling with purpose.

Tactical outlook

Liverpool’s 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 hybrid has been about field tilt and pressure layers rather than all‑out chaos. Jeremie Frimpong’s high starting positions on the right complement Salah’s gravity, while Robertson (if selected) gives balance and crossing on the left. Wirtz and Gakpo slide between pockets to vary the reference points for the centre‑backs. The biggest lever is the front‑man choice: Isak offers penalty‑box craft and combinational play; Ekitike stretches and attacks the near post. Either way, the champions have repeatedly found a second wind late on — a product of rotations and territory.

Everton’s improvement shows up in first and second‑line compactness. Garner tucking in from left‑back (if required) lets Dewsbury‑Hall press out without exposing the half‑spaces, while Idrissa Gana Gueye and Tim Iroegbunam screen and spring counters. Grealish drives entries from the right with carry‑to‑cross threats; Ndiaye varies his starting points to receive between lines. Set pieces remain an important lever — Tarkowski and Keane give aerial mass that can trouble Liverpool’s zonal scheme if deliveries are right.

Key players and matchups 🔑

• Mohamed Salah vs the makeshift left side: If Mykolenko isn’t ready and Garner remains at left‑back, Salah’s 1v1 gravity plus Frimpong’s overlaps can overload that corridor.
• Virgil van Dijk on restarts: His timing and blocking shape Liverpool’s box on defensive set pieces and he remains a live target at the other end.
• Kiernan Dewsbury‑Hall’s high midfield role: The link between Everton’s press and counter; his connection with Grealish/Ndiaye dictates whether the visitors can turn regains into shots.
• Goalkeepers: Pickford’s distribution under pressure will set the tone for Everton’s exits; Alisson’s sweeping is key against Barry/Beto runs in behind.

What the model says — and how it plays

Our numbers make this a three‑way with real draw gravity: Liverpool 38%, Draw 33%, Everton 29%. That aligns with the on‑pitch picture: the champions edge the quality and H2H, but Everton’s structure and improved away returns limit variance. The goal model nudges Over 2.5 at 53% — not a green‑light shootout, but enough to expect spells where the game opens, especially after the hour.

Value angles to consider (keep it measured) 🎯

• Over 2.5 goals — slight lean (53%). The matchup has pathways to a livelier second half if the first is caged.
• Salah to score anytime. His derby record and current chance involvement justify interest if prices aren’t prohibitive.
• Second‑half goals edge. Liverpool’s habit of deciding games late makes “second half higher scoring” or “Liverpool to score in the second half” a reasonable look if numbers are fair.

Discipline matters in a derby — stakes small, prices only if they match the edge. The draw is a live runner; prefer goal‑related angles to outcome chases.

Likely flow

Expect Liverpool to set the field early, Everton to ride the first wave and hold a compact mid‑block. If the visitors keep Salah’s side quiet through 30 minutes, transitions to Beto/Barry and weak‑side switches to Ndiaye become important. Substitutions may again tilt the late stages, where Liverpool’s bench and conditioning have repeatedly told.

Liverpool shade the matchup, but the model sees fine margins. With draw risk elevated and only a gentle nudge to the over, the most sensible stance is Liverpool advantage without forcing the result market. Goal‑related leans — Over 2.5 at 53% and a nod to second‑half scoring or Salah anytime — fit the profile. Keep stakes modest; derbies swing on moments.