Derby d’Italia preview: Juventus vs Internazionale — model edges Inter in Turin

Footixify probabilities — Home 20%, Draw 30%, Away 50%; Over 2.5: 60%

The state of play

Italy pauses for its first Derby d’Italia of the season, and the numbers tilt slightly away from the Allianz Stadium. Juventus have opened with two wins and two clean sheets, but our model gives Internazionale the narrowest of away edges. That tension mirrors the rivalry’s recent texture: Juve typically manage the Turin chapter well, Inter threaten with pace and width, and stalemates are never far away.

Head-to-head context 🧱

History points to a tight evening. Juventus have lost just one of the last 11 league meetings in Turin. Last season brought a chaotic 4-4 in Milan before a cagey return in which a late strike settled it. In broader terms, Inter have only one win in the last six league clashes with Juve, a reminder that control in midfield and set‑piece execution often decide this fixture more than sheer shot volume.

Recent form and rhythms

• Juventus: 2 wins from 2 to start (2-0 vs Parma, 1-0 at Genoa), both clean sheets. Kenan Yıldız has been lively between the lines, and Jonathan David has generated steady shot quality (about 0.6 xG in the opener) even when used as a runner rather than a pure focal point.
• Internazionale: Thumped Torino 5-0 on opening day, then stumbled 1-2 at home to Udinese. The wing-backs supplied thrust in the rout; the subsequent dip featured rushed build-up and limited entries into the box for Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram.

If you’re weighing momentum, it’s split: Juve are banking control, Inter have shown a higher attacking ceiling but a low baseline when the midfield doesn’t connect.

Team news and selection notes 🚑

Juventus weigh up their forward mix. Jonathan David is in form, while Dušan Vlahović has scored in both league games despite coming off the bench. A recent arrival, Loïs Openda, is another option if extra depth is needed. Francisco Conceição withdrew from national duty with a muscular issue and is a doubt. Fabio Miretti has a thigh problem. Andrea Cambiaso serves the second of a two‑match ban, leaving the wing-back roles to a shuffle between João Mário, Filip Kostić, Pierre Kalulu and Weston McKennie.

For Inter, a deadline‑day addition in Manuel Akanji could make his Serie A debut, potentially displacing Yann Bisseck in the back three. The visitors otherwise look healthy. Summer signings Luiz Henrique, Andy Diouf and Ange Bonny are in contention but could start on the bench. Up front it’s the familiar axis: Thuram has already scored twice this term, while Lautaro Martínez will try to improve a modest league return against Juve (2 goals in 14 appearances).

Tactical outlook 🔑

Juventus under Igor Tudor have opened with a pragmatic 3-4-2-1: a back three that defends the box well, wing-backs that alternate height, and a narrow two behind the striker to trigger counters. Expect Bremer to handle early duels with Thuram while a spare center-back tracks Lautaro’s darts to the near post. In possession, Juve will aim to funnel second balls to Manuel Locatelli and Teun Koopmeiners, then release Yıldız between the lines to connect with David/Vlahović. Set‑pieces remain a strong card — Bremer, Gatti and Kelly are potent targets.

Cristian Chivu’s Inter seek width earlier and more aggressively. Dumfries and Dimarco provide the stretch, Calhanoglu dictates tempo from the base, and Barella surges into the right half‑space to knit combinations. If Akanji starts, his line‑breaking passes can help bypass Juve’s first press. The central question: can Inter arrive in the box with runners rather than just crosses? When they did versus Torino, the penalty‑box occupation looked elite; against Udinese, the distances between midfield and attack widened and the shot quality dipped.

What swings the tie?

• First goal importance: with Juve’s compact block, chasing the game is tough at the Allianz. Conversely, Inter’s transitions are vicious if they score first.
• Wing‑back battles: Dumfries vs Kostić/João Mário on one flank, Dimarco vs Kalulu/McKennie on the other, could dictate territory.
• Set‑plays: both sides have size; Juve, in particular, craft high‑value routines. One restart could be the separator.

Key stats snapshot 📈

• Juve: 2 clean sheets from 2; both matches under 2.5 goals.
• Inter: 5 goals scored vs Torino, then 1 shot on target for Lautaro in the Udinese defeat.
• Model lean: Inter away win 50% vs Juve 20%, with a 30% draw; Over 2.5 at 60% points to game‑state volatility if the first goal arrives early.

Value angles (bet responsibly)

• Inter Draw No Bet: The model’s edge on the away side plus Inter’s wing‑based threat makes the safety of DNB appealing in a traditionally tight fixture.
• Over 2.5 goals: Priced by our model at 60%. It contradicts Juve’s early trend, so consider scaling stake size or pairing with Inter DNB to balance outcomes.
• Cards/Set‑piece props: With aerial targets on both sides and duels on the flanks, corners and fouls could trend upward. Look for conservative thresholds and avoid longshot builders.

None of the above is a guarantee; volatility is real in rivalries. Stake proportionally and be price‑sensitive.

Predicted flow

Early sparring should be cautious, with Inter probing wide and Juve aiming for counters into Yıldız and the striker. If Inter land the first punch, their transitions can snowball. If Juve score first from a set‑play, expect a lid on the game, with Inter forced into crosses. A draw sits live throughout — especially if the center‑mid battle settles into parity.

Edge to Inter on the model, edge to Juventus historically in Turin. That tension sets the stage for a high‑level arm‑wrestle. Inter DNB and a cautious lean to Over 2.5 line up with our probabilities, but be prepared for a game that can hinge on one restart or one wing‑back overload. Enjoy the Derby d’Italia — and keep stakes sensible.