West Ham vs Tottenham: Fine margins in the London Stadium derby
The model calls a near toss‑up — set pieces and transitions could tip a tense capital clash.
Footixify probabilities — Home 33%, Draw 33%, Away 34%; Over 2.5: 52%
Why our model is split
These two arrive with contrasting pulses but converging odds. West Ham snapped a rough start with a statement 3-0 away win before the break, while Tottenham followed a superb victory at Manchester City with a flat home defeat. The margins are razor-thin on our model, reflecting a derby that often drifts into stalemate territory at the London Stadium.
Recent form snapshot
| Team | Opponent | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | Nottingham Forest | A | 3-0 W |
| West Ham | Chelsea | H | 1-5 L |
| West Ham | Sunderland | A | 0-3 L |
| Tottenham | Bournemouth | H | 0-1 L |
| Tottenham | Man City | A | 2-0 W |
| Tottenham | Burnley | H | 3-0 W |
Team news and selection notes
West Ham expect to be without Niclas Fullkrug (calf), with Luis Guilherme sidelined and George Earthy a doubt. A veteran goalkeeper has rejoined on a short deal, and a defensive loanee arrived during the window, boosting depth. Graham Potter can keep Jarrod Bowen central or turn to Callum Wilson up front, with Crysencio Summerville pushing for a bigger role after an impactful cameo.
Tottenham could hand debuts to two recent attacking arrivals, with Xavi Simons the likelier to start. Randal Kolo Muani is in the frame for minutes. There’s a fitness watch on Yves Bissouma, while Dejan Kulusevski, James Maddison and Radu Dragusin remain long-term absentees; Kota Takai is also out. Expect Rodrigo Bentancur to steer midfield control, with Joao Palhinha anchoring and the full-backs (notably Pedro Porro) key to progression.
Tactical outlook
- West Ham’s 4-2-3-1 leans on set-piece quality and second-phase pressure. James Ward-Prowse’s delivery into Bowen/Kilman/Mavropanos remains a prime route. In open play, Paqueta between the lines and quick outlets to the wings are their accelerators.
- Tottenham will try to own territory via their double pivot, then punch with wide rotations and third-man runs. Richarlison (or Kolo Muani) offers penalty-box presence, while Simons can knit moves in the right half-space. The Romero–van de Ven axis must handle crosses and counters.
Head-to-head context
The last three league meetings here finished 1-1, and Tottenham have not won away to West Ham in the league since 2019. That history dovetails with our near 33% draw probability and a tight expected goal spread.
Value angles (play responsibly)
- Draw leans into both our model (33%) and the recent H2H pattern.
- Both Teams To Score makes sense: West Ham have been scoring regularly at home, and Tottenham’s attack has enough weapons despite absences.
- Over 2.5 at 52% is a marginal edge; consider pairing with a cautious stance on the 1X/12 market depending on your risk profile.
Tottenham bring higher ceiling pieces, West Ham bring set-piece bite and derby familiarity. With probabilities essentially level and a history of stalemates, the value tilts toward the draw and BTTS in what should be a tense, tactical evening in Stratford.