Sunderland vs Everton: Model leans Toffees in Wearside litmus test

Footixify probabilities — Home 22%, Draw 24%, Away 53%; Over 2.5: 52%

Sunderland have ridden a wave of momentum into November, but the model still tilts toward an away success at the Stadium of Light. The Black Cats’ resilience has been real — they’ve clawed back more points from losing positions than any side so far — yet Monday’s visitors arrive with enough individual quality and structure to make this a stern examination of the hosts’ top‑six credentials.

Recent form snapshot 📈

Both teams’ last five tell a clear story: Sunderland’s curve is pointing up; Everton’s has flattened against elite opposition but remains competitive in the mid-table fights.

Team	Last 5 (league)	GF	GA
Sunderland	W W L W D	6	4
Everton	L L W D L	4	9

Sunderland’s standout 2-1 at Chelsea capped a three‑wins‑in‑four run, with Wilson Isidor and late-game difference-makers like Chemsdine Talbi giving them punch in transition. Everton come off back‑to‑back defeats to Manchester City and Tottenham, but those were against top-tier attacks; they still showed enough in the West Ham and Crystal Palace fixtures to suggest the attack is creating phases of pressure, if not yet converting consistently.

Team news and availability 🚑

Sunderland: Defensive anchor Omar Alderete has trained following concussion protocols and could return. Simon Adingra is also expected back from a minor hamstring issue, while Dan Neil should be available after a head knock. Aji Alese (shoulder), Dennis Cirkin (wrist), Romain Mundle (thigh), Leo Fuhr Hjelde (Achilles) and Habib Diarra (groin) remain sidelined. Regis Le Bris shifted to a back five at Chelsea, but a return to a four‑man defense at home is on the table.

Everton: Jarrad Branthwaite isn’t ready yet (hamstring) and Nathan Patterson is still recovering from foot/groin issues, so the Keane–Tarkowski axis likely continues. The main selection question is up front: Beto’s physical presence versus the mobility of Thierno Barry. Otherwise, the Toffees report a largely clean bill.

Tactical outlook and matchups 🔧

• Wide threats vs set‑piece moments: Sunderland’s fullbacks (Trai Hume and the left side, potentially Reinildo) provide width and early crossing angles that suit Isidor’s near‑post runs. Against Tottenham, Everton struggled with aerial deliveries; that will be a Sunderland point of emphasis on dead balls and second phases.

• Midfield control vs chaos: With Granit Xhaka and Enzo Le Fée, Sunderland can tilt games into controlled pressure. Everton counter with James Garner’s passing range and Kiernan Dewsbury‑Hall’s left‑sided carries to break pressure. If Sunderland drop into a back four, the hosts may push an extra body higher, inviting transitions both ways.

• The Pickford subplot: Jordan Pickford returns to face his boyhood club and remains vital for Everton’s rest‑defense and distribution. His quick restarts to Jack Grealish on the left can flip pressure and target Sunderland’s fullback in isolation.

Head‑to‑head context 🧱

Recent meetings between these clubs have favored Everton — three straight wins by a combined 8-0 — though the last league clash came back in 2017. The historic skew adds a psychological edge, but the squads and managers are entirely different now; the more relevant data point is Everton’s ability to turn territorial pressure into chances against mid-table sides this season, even if the finishing has lagged.

Key players and roles 🔑

• Sunderland: Wilson Isidor’s penalty‑box movement has underpinned the upturn, while Talbi offers late‑game penetration from the right. Alderete’s return, if confirmed, would boost set‑piece threat and aerial coverage. Xhaka’s tempo (and switch of play) is the metronome.

• Everton: Jack Grealish draws contact, progresses attacks and wins territory on the left — a magnet for free‑kicks around the box. Iliman Ndiaye floats into pockets to combine with Garner and Dewsbury‑Hall. At the back, Tarkowski/Keane are strong in duels but can be exposed by quick third‑man runs; transitions behind Everton’s fullbacks are a key Sunderland route.

What the model sees (and why it leans Away) 📊

The Footixify model gives Everton a 53% chance of victory, with the draw at 24% and Sunderland at 22%. Two factors drive the lean:

1. Baseline squad strength and shot quality: Even in the recent defeats, Everton generated workable looks and limited opponents for stretches. Against non‑elite units, that edge tends to surface over 90 minutes.

2. Sunderland’s game state volatility: The Black Cats have rescued an outsized share of points from losing positions — encouraging, but also indicative of high‑variance game states. That volatility increases the away‑win probability relative to typical home favorites in this range.

Over/Under 2.5 sits at 52% for the Over, a marginal tilt toward goals. Sunderland’s set‑piece upside and Everton’s left‑side ball progression support the Over, but it’s not a runaway signal.

Key stats

• Sunderland last 5 (league): W W L W D; 6 scored, 4 conceded.
• Everton last 5 (league): L L W D L; 4 scored, 9 conceded.
• Everton have won the last 3 H2H meetings (8-0 aggregate).
• Model: Away 53%, Draw 24%, Home 22%; Over 2.5 at 52%.

Value angles (bet responsibly) 🎯

• 1X2: Everton — lean. The model edge (53%) plus Everton’s individual quality in wide areas and set pieces make the visitors worth a look. Sunderland’s surge is real, but much of it has been built on late-game swings; if Everton score first, their control mechanisms should travel.

• Over/Under 2.5: Slight lean to Over 2.5. Marginal model advantage (52%), supported by Sunderland’s set‑piece threat and Everton’s ability to generate territory and crosses. Not a strong conviction — consider staking discipline.

Secondary notes: If Alderete starts, Sunderland’s set‑piece ceiling rises. If Beto is preferred to Barry, expect more early crosses and near‑post actions from Everton; if Barry starts, look for more wall‑passes and cutbacks.

Bottom line: This profiles as an elastic game where the first goal matters. Sunderland’s energy and the home crowd guarantee moments, but the model — and matchup details — ever so slightly prefer the away side to find the decisive edge.

Footixify’s numbers side with Everton in a high‑variance matchup, with a slight nudge toward Over 2.5. Sunderland’s momentum keeps this close, but the visitors’ wide‑area quality and game management tip the balance. Away win lean; Over 2.5 as a cautious secondary angle.