Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund: Model backs the visitors to settle a score

Footixify probabilities — Home 16%, Draw 23%, Away 60%; Over 2.5: 57%

The setup

Augsburg welcome Borussia Dortmund to the WWK Arena with contrasting moods in tow. The hosts are searching for traction after a bruising few weeks, while the visitors look more balanced and increasingly assertive after a testing early run. The Footixify model has a clear lean to the away side and a modest edge toward goals clearing the 2.5 line.

Last season’s storyline gives this fixture some bite: Augsburg took six points off Dortmund, and the visitors have only one win in the last four head‑to‑heads. That makes this as much a mental reset as a tactical puzzle for the Black and Yellows.

Why the model leans Dortmund 📈

The model’s away‑win probability at 60% reflects both current form and matchup dynamics.

• Augsburg have dropped five of their last seven in all competitions, including a heavy home defeat to RB Leipzig and a cup exit days later. The defensive structure has frayed, particularly in transitions and set‑piece control.
• Dortmund, by contrast, have tightened up their possession game and chance suppression. Recent competitive wins include a professional 1-0 over Köln and a 4-2 away performance in Europe, bracketing a narrow Klassiker loss.
• With Over 2.5 at 57%, the data expects a game state where Dortmund’s pressure eventually breaks through, and Augsburg’s need to push at home creates more space the other way.

Recent form snapshot

Team	Last five (all comps)	Notable recent result
Augsburg	L D W L L	0-6 vs RB Leipzig (H)
Dortmund	W W L D W	1-0 vs Köln (H); 4-2 away in Europe

Team news and selection notes 🚑

• Augsburg’s back line has been in flux. A senior center‑back has been sidelined with a knee issue, and the rotation around him hasn’t fully settled. Up front, Alexis Claude‑Maurice has been leading the line without a recent league goal, so a younger option like Mert Kömür could see more minutes.
• Dortmund have welcomed a defender back to action this week and managed minutes smartly across the cup fixture. A couple of squad attackers impressed off the bench but may still feature as impact options here. In midfield, a steady double pivot has helped their press resistance. A pair of first‑teamers remain on the treatment table, though one is nearing a training return.

Netting those developments together, Augsburg face continuity questions in central defense and at the nine; Dortmund’s issues are more about choice and rhythm rather than availability.

Head‑to‑head context 🧱

Augsburg did the double last season, both by a single goal. That’s the caution flag for an away side priced as clear favorites by our model. The matchup tends to be combative, with Augsburg happy to turn the game into second balls and broken‑play opportunities. Dortmund’s task is to keep the tempo on their terms and avoid getting dragged into a mistake‑prone contest.

Tactical outlook

• Augsburg out of possession: Expect a compact mid‑block that tries to steer Dortmund away from central combinations. The problem has been the space left either side of the center‑backs and the timing of full‑back jumps — precisely the lanes Dortmund’s wide forwards and wing‑backs look to attack.
• Dortmund on the ball: More balance in the last few matches, with clean progression from the back three/four into midfield and runners hitting the half‑spaces. The wide threat — particularly the pace and directness on the right — pairs well with a penalty‑box striker who occupies both central defenders.
• Set pieces: Given Augsburg’s recent set‑play slips, Dortmund’s aerial threats at center‑back are a real lever; deliveries from the left‑sided wing‑back and an all‑action midfielder provide quality supply.
• Transitions: If Augsburg break Dortmund’s first line, they can still fashion shots from the edge of the box. But those moments are fewer when Dortmund control rest defense with an extra holding midfielder and aggressive counter‑press.

Key stats and signals

• Model lean: Away win 60%; draw 23%; home 16%.
• Goals model: Over 2.5 hits 57% — a mild edge to a higher‑scoring script.
• Form pulse: Augsburg have one win since late summer; Dortmund have scored in multiple straight competitive matches and look sharper between the boxes.
• H2H caution: Augsburg won both meetings last season; variance in tight margins lingers.

What it means for 1X2 and totals 🎯

Primary markets first:

• 1X2: Dortmund win — lean. The 60% away number, plus Augsburg’s defensive wobble, supports siding with the visitors. The H2H “hoodoo” is your counterweight, but current form tilts it back to yellow‑and‑black.
• Over/Under 2.5: Lean Over. At 57% with tactics pointing to space for transitions after the first goal, the goals upside is slightly stronger than the Under case. Augsburg’s recent goals‑against spikes push this angle along.

If you prefer a more cautious stance, anchoring to the 1X2 side and avoiding complex derivatives makes sense. Double‑chance or insurance‑type plays have their place when you strongly fear the draw — but here, the clean away lean and modest Over edge are the most straightforward reads from our numbers.

Players to watch

• Dortmund’s right‑sided attacker for the direct threat in behind and diagonal cuts onto the left foot. The striker’s movement across the line is a headache for center‑backs who struggle with body orientation.
• An all‑round Dortmund midfielder who has recently stepped up in ball progression and late‑arriving shots — tempo control will be vital against Augsburg’s scrappy midfield.
• For Augsburg, the young forward option brings energy between the lines; if he starts, his pressing can help create the short‑field chances the hosts need.

The bottom line

The Footixify model is aligned with the eye test: Dortmund should control more of the key phases, and the matchup profile nudges this toward a game with at least a couple of good scoring windows. Respect Augsburg’s fight and last season’s results, but the current trendlines point to the visitors correcting course in Swabia.

Recommended angles: Dortmund on the 1X2 (lean) and Over 2.5 (lean). The model’s 60% away edge and 57% goals signal, supported by recent form and team news, make those the most responsible primary reads. Keep stakes sensible given last season’s head‑to‑head quirks.