Real Sociedad vs Sevilla: Away momentum meets Basque urgency
Footixify model backs Sevilla on the road, with a slight lean to goals
Footixify probabilities — Home 21%, Draw 23%, Away 56%; Over 2.5: 53%
The model view 📈
Our numbers are firmly on the visitors. Sevilla carry a 56% win probability, with Real Sociedad at 21% and the draw at 23%. The goals model tilts slightly toward Over 2.5 at 53%, hinting at an edge for a game that opens up if Sevilla score first.
Recent form snapshot
Real Sociedad have found little rhythm in the league, while Sevilla’s peaks have been higher even if inconsistency remains. Here’s the quick read on the last five league matches for each:
| Team | Last 5 (oldest → latest) | Goals For | Goals Against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | L, W, L, L, D | 4 | 7 |
| Sevilla | W, L, W, W, L | 9 | 7 |
- Real Sociedad’s run includes a home defeat to Rayo and an away draw at Celta; their lone win in that stretch was a tight 1-0 against Mallorca.
- Sevilla’s ceiling has flashed: a 4-1 dismantling of Barcelona and a clean, controlled 1-0 away win at Rayo, even if a 1-3 setback to Mallorca last time out kept them honest.
Team news and selection notes 🚑
- Real Sociedad are set to be without Orri Oskarsson (thigh). Late checks are expected on Takefusa Kubo, Alex Lebarbier and Iñaki Rupérez after they missed the Celta draw. With positives drawn from that display, an unchanged XI is plausible, with Mikel Oyarzabal and Ander Barrenetxea again leading the line. Carlos Soler and Gonçalo Guedes offer impact options if Francisco wants extra punch between the lines.
- Sevilla have a few lingering doubts in defense and midfield (Tanguy Nianzou, Joan Jordán and Alfonso González), but no fresh issues have been flagged. Expect Isaac Romero to spearhead the attack, supported by Rubén Vargas, with Adnan Januzaj, Akor Adams and Chidera Ejuke providing varied profiles off the bench or as rotational starters. Romero and Vargas have combined for a healthy early-season goal return, and their movement has been central to Sevilla’s improved attacking threat.
Tactical outlook
- Real Sociedad: The plan has leaned on Oyarzabal as the reference with Barrenetxea’s direct dribbling to break lines. Brais Méndez remains the primary creator between midfield and the right half-space. Out of possession, the back line anchored by Igor Zubeldia and Duje Ćaleta‑Car has defended deep phases reasonably well, but lapses in defensive transitions have cost points. If Kubo is fit enough to feature, his ball-carrying from the right could change the tempo and give La Real the counterweight they’ve lacked.
- Sevilla: Matías Almeyda’s side are most dangerous when they press selectively, win second balls in midfield via Lucien Agoumé/Djibril Sow, and release Vargas into the channels around Romero. Full-backs Juanlu Sánchez and Gabriel Suazo can pin back wide men, while César Azpilicueta’s organization has helped stabilize the back four. When Sevilla’s first line clicks, they quickly turn territory into shots — as seen in their statement win over Barcelona.
Head-to-head and context
Sevilla have taken two of the last three league meetings with Real Sociedad, including a narrow win in their most recent clash. Notably, there hasn’t been a draw between these sides since early 2022 — six straight fixtures have produced a winner. That pattern supports the model’s strong lean away from the stalemate.
Where the value may be 🔑
Primary markets first:
- 1X2: With a clear 56% edge on Sevilla, the away win is the model-backed side. The on-pitch picture supports it — Sevilla’s attacking pair of Romero/Vargas carries current form, and their press can expose Sociedad’s buildup under pressure.
- Over/Under 2.5: At 53%, it’s a modest lean to the Over. Sociedad’s recent home matches have been cagey, but Sevilla’s games have had spikes in goal volume. If Sevilla score first, the match state favors additional goals.
Secondary angles (measured):
- Both Teams To Score merits consideration. Real Sociedad tend to produce a handful of quality looks via Barrenetxea’s carries and Oyarzabal’s movement even when under duress, while Sevilla’s transition threat is live for 90 minutes. The model’s Over tilt adds support.
Key matchups to watch
- Oyarzabal vs Azpilicueta/Marção: Sociedad’s captain needs clever separation in the box; Sevilla’s experienced center-right pairing will try to keep him away from high‑xG zones.
- Barrenetxea vs Suazo: A classic winger vs full-back duel. Win those 1v1s and La Real become far more dangerous.
- Agoumé/Sow vs Méndez/Herrera: The midfield hinge. If Sevilla control second balls, they’ll keep the tempo tilted and compress Sociedad’s passing lanes.
What it all points to
Sevilla arrive with higher attacking variance but the bigger upside, and the model is decisive on their side. Real Sociedad’s route is a measured start and set-piece efficiency; without that, they may struggle to hold Sevilla’s transition punches over 90 minutes.
Bold prediction: Sevilla to edge it, with the Over 2.5 very much in play if the visitors get the first goal.
Model-backed angle: Sevilla on the 1X2 is the standout, with a responsible lean toward Over 2.5. Sociedad’s best chance is to slow the game and lean on Oyarzabal/Barrenetxea moments, but if Sevilla win midfield turnovers, their frontline has enough form to tilt the result their way.