Newcastle United vs Benfica — model gives the visitors a narrow edge at St James’ Park

Footixify probabilities — Home 25%, Draw 34%, Away 41%; Over 2.5: 48%

The setup

Newcastle return to European action under the lights looking to steady the rhythm after a 2-1 setback at Brighton. A ruthless 4-0 away win at Union SG on matchday two showed their ceiling, but consistency remains the theme to crack. Benfica arrive with continental pressure of their own, having lost their opening two Champions League matches, yet recent domestic results have tightened up under their new regime. The model makes this more balanced than the venue might suggest, with a slight lean to the Portuguese side.

Recent form snapshot 📈

Both teams are defending well enough that margins matter.

Team	Last 5 (most recent first)	GF	GA
Newcastle United	L 2-1 Brighton, W 2-0 Nottm Forest, W 4-0 Union SG, L 1-2 Arsenal, D 0-0 Bournemouth	8	4
Benfica	D 0-0 Porto, L 0-1 Chelsea, W 2-1 Gil Vicente, D 1-1 Rio Ave, W 3-0 AVS	6	2

Newcastle’s last five read D-L-W-W-L overall, with two clean sheets and eight goals scored. Benfica’s D-W-D-L-W across league and Europe hints at a pragmatic turn: only two conceded in five, but goals have been scarcer in tougher fixtures.

Team news and availability 🚑

• Newcastle: Full-back depth is stretched. Tino Livramento is sidelined with a knee issue and Lewis Hall is working back from a hamstring problem, so Dan Burn should continue on the left with Kieran Trippier on the right. Fabian Schär is a candidate to return at centre-back after sitting out the last Champions League matchday start. Midfield minutes are being managed, with Joelinton eased back around the international window. In attack, Nick Woltemade has been a bright focal point, with Anthony Gordon providing the direct threat from wide.
• Benfica: Expect rotation to trim back after domestic cup duty. Goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin should return, with Nicolás Otamendi and António Silva anchoring the defence. Richard Ríos is in line to reclaim a midfield role. Up front, Vangelis Pavlidis has found a scoring groove recently. Right-back Alexander Bah and midfielder Manu Silva remain out with long-term injuries, while winger Bruma also continues his recovery.

Head-to-head and travel context

History leans toward the visitors: Benfica have had the better of prior competitive meetings and, more broadly, have tended to cope with European away days by keeping games tight. That said, trips to England are rarely straightforward for them, which feeds into the model’s elevated draw probability at 34%.

How the match could play out 🔑

• Newcastle’s edges: St James’ Park energy, set-piece quality through Trippier, and vertical surges from Gordon. When the Magpies play at tempo and pin opponents in, they can generate quick flurries of chances. The recent 4-0 at Union SG was built on aggressive pressing and decisive finishing from their front line.
• Benfica’s edges: Defensive cohesion and control phases. The Otamendi–Silva pairing has been reliable, and the double midfield screen has reduced space between the lines. Pavlidis offers penalty-box presence while wide forwards like Dodi Lukebakio can stretch transitions.

Expect a cagey first half: Newcastle will look to tilt the pitch, but Benfica’s structure tends to drag the tempo down and funnel crosses toward their centre-backs. If the hosts over-commit, the visitors’ first pass in transition to the half-spaces becomes the game’s key trigger.

Key players to watch

• Newcastle: Anthony Gordon’s directness and pressing set the tone; Nick Woltemade’s link-and-finish work has carried form across competitions; Bruno Guimarães’ ability to play through the first line will be vital against Benfica’s compact block.
• Benfica: Vangelis Pavlidis’ recent scoring run gives them an end-product focus; Fredrik Aursnes’ intelligence without the ball knits the midfield; Trubin’s command of the area can neutralise Newcastle’s set-piece threat.

Betting view (responsible, model-first)

Primary markets first:

• 1X2: With Away 41% the single most likely outcome in the model, a Benfica win is a fair lean. The Draw at 34% is also live, reflecting how both sides have defended recently and how Benfica tend to manage tougher away fixtures. If you prefer less variance, the visitors’ side of the result is the angle to prioritise over the home win.
• Over/Under 2.5: The model shades Under (Over 48%, Under 52%). That aligns with the recent data: Benfica’s last five have produced 8 total goals (1.6 per game), and Newcastle have twice kept clean sheets across their last four. A low-to-mid total fits the tactical picture.

Secondary angles, only if aligned with your view of the game state:

• First Half under trend: If you expect Benfica to slow the tempo early, a cautious first-half script is consistent with their recent approach.
• Set-piece involvement: Newcastle’s best route may be dead balls and wide service; player-shot involvement from their centre-forward or aerial targets could track up if they sustain territorial pressure.

Bankroll note: Margins look thin. Keep stakes modest and be willing to pivot in-play if the tempo breaks early.

What swings it?

• Newcastle scoring first off a set piece flips control to the hosts and opens the game.
• Benfica winning the turnover battle through midfield – particularly their first pass into the channels – tilts the tie toward the visitors.

In short, the model points to a narrow away edge in a controlled, tactical contest. One moment of quality in either box could define it. ⚽

Footixify sees a finely poised night on Tyneside. With Away 41% and Draw 34%, backing the visitors’ side of the 1X2 makes sense, while Under 2.5 is a reasonable lean given both teams’ recent defensive profiles. Expect a chess match decided by set pieces or a single transition — keep stakes disciplined.